1. Recent industry changes
Performance, 52 week
PFTS vs. Oblenergo index*
Total 52wk trading volumes, USD mln
2. Top picks
WATCH:
Summary
3. Stock market: "Golden mean" performed better
52 week performance* vs. profitability
4. Interim results: No surprises
9M07 results summary
Convergence in profitability: faster than we expected
EBITDA margin of different groups: 9M06,9M07
5. Increase in investment, Increase in welfare
Increase of investment program, 2008/2007
6. Debt issue: Hope for restructuring?
Account payable statistics
Net debt adjustments
Account receivable statistics, Sept. 30, 2007
7. Scoring: Still converging toward the best
Updated scoring
8. Valuation
Explanatory power* of parameters
Peer comparison
Peer data
Peer multiples, 2008E
Oblenergo data, USD mln
Oblenergo multiples
RAB (Regulatory Asset Base)
RAB calculation, USD mln
Valuation summary
Valuation summary
9. Donetskoblenergo: A special case
High bankruptcy risk requires special treatment
We value Donetskoblenergo using a scenario analysis, refer to the next section.Valuation of DOON: Scenario analysis
Valuation of DOON: Scenario analysis
Scenario 1: Restructuring with compensation. Probability: 20%
Scenario 2: Restructuring without compensation. Probability: 50%
Scenario 3: Bankruptcy. Probability: 30%
Scenario weighting
10. Analyst Certification
11. Sector report history